October 16 Stock Market Preview: Our primary scenario outlined in last night’s newsletter played out today with a nice bounce from the 50 EMA up to our first target at 7750, though SPX couldn’t make it beyond that yet. The VIX lost key support and now threatens a retest of 16, though we may see a retest of 7700 before a move toward 7800. The easy money has been made, now the moves may require us to be tactical in reacting to the markets moves.

October 15 Stock Market Preview: The AI trade continued to flounder today, with SMH dropping further. Indices saw an intraday bounce across the board that partially undid some of the damage, but the VIX closed above the HMA with a further increase in net positive GEX. What can we glean from these conflicting signals?

October 14 Stock Market Preview: The AI trade continued to flounder today, with SMH dropping further. Indices saw an intraday bounce across the board that partially undid some of the damage, but the VIX closed above the HMA with a further increase in net positive GEX. What can we glean from these conflicting signals?

October 13 Stock Market Preview: The VIX is back in positive GEX territory for the first time since September 25. The September 25 uptick in GEX preceded a gap up for the VIX, with the VIX high being made several days later. With conflicting bullish signals from SPX, will this time be similar?

October 13 Stock Market Preview: The VIX is back in positive GEX territory for the first time since September 25. The September 25 uptick in GEX preceded a gap up for the VIX, with the VIX high being made several days later. With conflicting bullish signals from SPX, will this time be similar?

October 9 Stock Market Preview: The VIX moved higher after tagging the 15 strike, with indices dropping to retest key support. SPX is still holding the HMA with positive GEX, increasing the odds of a bounce. QQQ looks more negative, but we could see a bounce for tech as well, albeit to a lower high. The down-and-out stocks may have a bigger part to play in the next move higher, though that’s a speculative contrarian view.

October 8 Stock Market Preview: Indices pushed higher yet again, with QQQ initially showing some resistance at the upper daily Keltner channel. The 760 GEX area is a big one for QQQ, and SPX is at a key area as well. Meanwhile, the VIX finally reached 15, which we’ve been looking for since late last week. Where do we go from here?

October 7 Stock Market Preview: Indices pushed higher yet again, with QQQ initially showing some resistance at the upper daily Keltner channel. The 760 GEX area is a big one for QQQ, and SPX is at a key area as well. Meanwhile, the VIX finally reached 15, which we’ve been looking for since late last week. Where do we go from here?

October 6 Stock Market Preview: SPX closed 2 points above the weekly HMA, too close for comfort in terms of having confidence we immediately continue higher. Our Market Velocity tool showed late day dealer absorption signals again, increasing the risk that we may be due for a pullback, even with expectations of higher prices before year end.

October 5 Stock Market Preview: While the GEX picture strongly points toward higher year-end targets, short-term divergences are building in the VIX and QQQ that suggest heightened risk of a short-term pullback.

October 2 Stock Market Preview: Micron reversed higher after testing lower levels post-earnings, and the semiconductors were strong almost all day, even without MU early on. While the late-day reversal higher was encouraging for SPX, the close left a lot to be desired, failing to close above 7675 while the VIX is above a key trendline. Uncertainty reigns heading into Friday and next week, with risk to SPX 7600 or lower.

September 30 Stock Market Preview: SPX/QQQ divergences are hard to ignore, and it’s hard to imagine that QQQ can remain completely in its own world with the idea that AI can thrive while the rest of the world burns. Tonight we’ll look at the GEX picture for this week and next across the major indices as well as a review of last night’s predictions (just for fun).

September 30 Stock Market Preview: SPX drifted lower Tuesday, almost reaching 7650 for the intraday low. While yesterday’s close was below 7700, pointing lower, today’s close was well above 7650 at 7671, potentially pointing toward a 7700 retest. The VIX closed below the HMA on various lower timeframes as IWM approaches the 50 EMA. A bounce may be near.

September 29 Stock Market Preview: SPX saw a modest shift toward negative GEX today, with 7600 now showing as the largest net GEX cluster looking at only this week’s GEX (Tues-Fri). Total net GEX is still solidly neutral though, which isn’t suggestive of a major shift in trend. We’re also approaching the final 2 days of the 3rd quarter and the beginning of the 4th quarter, so we’re prepared for potential whipsaw moves.

September 28 Stock Market Preview: SPX saw the anticipated short-term move higher Friday, testing 7750 resistance. Looking at GEX this week, we may still reach 7800, but some signs are emerging that may warrant caution beyond that area.

September 25 Stock Market Preview: Today’s gap down saw a test of the 7675 area we discussed as a target, with SPX regaining 7700 before the end of the day. All 4 sessions this week have closed above 7700, if you can believe it. A short-term bullish move may materialize, but we see risk to the downside, so let’s look at some potential scenarios looking ahead.

September 24 Stock Market Preview: SPX fulfilled the initial downside move we’ve been looking for since Tuesday, testing just below 7700 before closing above that important pivot point. Ultimately, SPX may test lower levels, but a bounce wouldn’t be surprising from today’s close or from a gap down Thursday to 7660 or higher. IWM is just above the 280 strike, an important GEX area, so we’ll watch IWM for potential advance warning as to whether or not the downside is likely over. QQQ appears to have the most “unfinished business” below, unable to even get close to its daily HMA. A sustainable low would ideally test some of the key supports before moving higher.

September 23 Stock Market Preview: SPX sat out today as IWM and QQQ led the way instead. The VIX dropped further toward 14, the lower end of our near-term anticipated VIX low, but we once again see a big increase in positive GEX for the VIX, a reliable indicator of lows in volatility since the end of July. GEX points higher for the market, but we might be due for a pullback before more upside.

September 22 Stock Market Preview: The first move after OpEx was to the upside, with QQQ and SPX already approaching initial upside targets within the first day of the October OpEx cycle. The move higher increases the odds of continuation toward new highs, but we might see a pullback first. IWM saw positive GEX movement today for the first time since September 4, suggesting a bounce may finally be near for small caps. The VIX maintains positive GEX and painted an indecision candle, adding evidence to the possibility of a market pullback soon.

September 21 Stock Market Preview: Friday marked the conclusion of the September OpEx cycle, with indices painting markedly divergent pictures, with mixed price action and mixed GEX positioning. Meanwhile, to confuse matters further, the VIX has plunged to sub-15 levels that have correlated with prior lows and reversal areas while maintaining a positive GEX picture. Let’s take an early look at the October OpEx positioning and discuss a couple of potential scenarios that may play out.