September 1 Stock Market Preview: Tonight we’re looking at the GEX picture for the next two weeks, excluding today’s already expired 0 DTE GEX. We see two divergent views: A somewhat more neutral-to-bearish view of SPX, and a positive-leaning view for QQQ. The VIX gapped up but gave up a lot of the gain, and VX futures were especially hit hard as they embark on a rather early journey of closing the gap to spot VIX. Will the market see a larger drop before resolving higher, or was today “it” as far as downside goes?

August 31 Stock Market Preview: Indices strongly suggest higher levels will arrive before the end of the year, but the next two weeks leading up to OpEx in September could get dicey, if the VIX has any say in the matter. Tonight we look at key upside and downside levels that may impact which direction is chosen first as we enter the last trading day of August.

August 27 Stock Market Preview: Our “primary” scenario of NVDA moving higher seems to be playing out after hours following their earnings report, so now we’ll await the cash session to see if the move can continue. Tonight we’ll go over the VIX and discuss the risk of limited upside from here for the indices.

August 26 Stock Market Preview: As we approach NVDA earnings after hours Wednesday, indices look uncertain as to which levels are tested first: Downside support, or upside targets? The VIX has a setup to reach 14, at least briefly. Let’s take a tactical look at how we might react to the first move after NVDA’s report and potentially during the day prior to the report.

August 25 Stock Market Preview: Technically, the market looks weak, closing below key daily and weekly supports, while the VIX closed above key daily and weekly supports. But GEX paints a less certain picture: SPX holding above 7650, QQQ holding above 700, the VIX still below the big negative GEX at the 16 strike. What are the most likely pathways moving forward?

August 24 Stock Market Preview: While the weekly SPX chart and the total net GEX picture paint a solid upside picture until we reach 7900-8000, the picture for the next few days appears uncertain, with the VIX maintaining a setup to reach 19-20. Does the most likely scenario suggest a pullback first, then rally later scenario?

August 21 Stock Market Preview: Thursday saw SPX reach the 7640 target that we discussed Wednesday, and the VIX spiked above 16 before limping into the close in the 15s again. GEX shifted more negatively across the board, and strangely, we haven’t seen a real VIX spike. Is the VIX doomed to reach 12 again, or will the next bounce for the market be short-lived?

August 20 Stock Market Preview: Yesterday, we noted that the VIX had a setup to potentially test the 14-14.5 area, and today’s low was 14.77. We may still see the VIX drop closer to 14, but now that we’re beyond VIX monthly options expiration, such a drop may not be long-lasting. Tonight we look at the VIX, SPX, and QQQ as we approach monthly OpEx for major indices on Friday.

August 19 Stock Market Preview: The close below 7750 for SPX and 730 for QQQ proved consequential, with negative action taking SPX down to 7691.97 at the close. The VIX still shows no signs of life, likely due to the large negative GEX at 15 that we see as the VIX moves into the morning’s monthly options expiration for VIX options. With the VIX remaining relatively low, we are cautious toward the sustainability of any push higher, but we do think the market can rebound from here, potentially sending the VIX to 14 again.

August 18 Stock Market Preview: Monday evolved into a day with the VIX up over 6.5%, QQQ lost 730, and SPX closed below 7750. Is this GEX level and technical “break” going to hold in OpEx week, where bears go to die? Let’s look at some key levels as we look ahead to VIX expiration Wednesday and OpEx Friday.

August 17 Stock Market Preview: Thursday’s extreme positive GEX reading on SPX (a potentially contrarian signal for price action) seems to have shown early signs of success, with SPX dropping slightly on Friday. We see negative options flow at higher strikes and some technical signs of potential weakness ahead, but can the VIX wake up from its coma?

August 14 Stock Market Preview: SPX tagged 7800 today, exceeding the upper end of our previously mentioned 7700-7800 range briefly before closing barely 1 point below 7800 as of the close. We finally see a solidly extreme SPX GEX reading at the end of day, potentially signaling a short-term top. Let’s look at the comprehensive picture.

August 13 Stock Market Preview: Indices displayed a muted reaction to CPI today, showing failure to recapture the GEX area at SPX 7750 despite the VIX being crushed even further to the mid-14s. The weekly picture hasn’t changed much: We have a likely range of 7700-7800, though we’ll focus on a few points to keep in mind based on Wednesday’s action.

August 12 Stock Market Preview: QQQ and SPX lost key daily HMA support today as the VIX held above the HMA for the first time since late July, also as the VIX is near lows of the year. Suffice it to say, from a contrarian standpoint, this is not the setup that I seek to go max long right before CPI Wednesday morning. Can the rally get even more ridiculous? Will we finally see a pullback since the breathtaking move higher? You’ll know in a few hours, but read on for supplemental entertainment anyway.

August 11 Stock Market Preview: The VIX moved up today, also forming a doji candle on the daily chart. Could a reversal be underway? Tonight’s newsletter looks at this week’s GEX (excluding Monday’s expiring GEX) and option activity to see which levels we’re focused on as we enter Tuesday’s trading session.

August 10 Stock Market Preview: The VIX appears to be ready for a reversal, yet we’re also looking at a bullish GEX picture into Augusts’ OpEx on the 21st, which is our timeframe in focus for Sunday’s newsletter. We suspect we’ll have a pullback sometime this week, but let’s look at important levels on both sides of the current SPX price as well as a couple of potential scenarios to consider.

August 7 Stock Market Preview: Indices showed weakness Thursday, but only modestly, with QQQ bouncing off of the opening lows and SPX held above 7700. Major indices paint an unclear picture regarding the next move, with GEX still biased higher, yet the VIX and other technicals suggesting we have downside risk in the near term. Let’s look at some key levels we’ll be watching Friday into next week.

August 6 Stock Market Preview: The extreme upside move is starting to show some cracks, with QQQ closing below the key 720 level and SPX closing lower as well. The VIX was crushed to a point only seen 3 other times this year, all marking local lows for volatility. While a drop may be imminent, let’s look at the total picture to ascertain what may happen after a pullback.

August 5 Stock Market Preview: SPX bulls declared victory today with a breakout beyond 7700, causing bears to be added to the Federal endangered species list. But we also saw the VIX higher, and semiconductors couldn’t keep up the pace. Are we seeing a sustainable rotation that will keep markets elevated, or is this a fake breakout? Let’s look at key levels that might help us keep up with the next move.