July 17 Stock Market Preview: SPX is still exhibiting relative strength, and especially IWM, which was essentially flat at the close. But QQQ’s weakness was enough to pull SPX down as the VIX bounced from the key 15.5 support zone we’ve been highlighting, and semiconductors appear to be on the verge of a larger breakdown. Tonight’s newsletter looks at OpEx levels that may be important Friday.

July 16 Stock Market Preview: Indices looked pretty bullish today, initially filling the gap from yesterday’s close to the downside, then coming all the way back up. Contrarian warnings from the VIX and the formerly leading sector we respectfully call “the semiconductors” deserve our attention, but SPX has the setup to potentially make a new high before turning lower.

July 15 Stock Market Preview: Indices bounced Tuesday, with QQQ looking more hopeful and SPX testing resistance. A setup still exists to see SPX test 7600 by Friday, but we want to see certain levels hold to keep this possibility alive. The VIX initially failed to overtake 17, and we may see 15.5 before another leg higher in volatility may occur. Let’s take a look at these levels more closely in conjunction with the GEX picture.

July 14 Stock Market Preview: The first day of OpEx week was a red one for the indices, and the VIX closed right at an important line that marks an important pivot on my charts. In the big picture, nothing has changed, with indices still respecting the limits of this lengthy consolidation, keeping both upside and downside breakout scenarios possible. Given the GEX picture, we still favor at least a temporary upside scenario given the GEX picture. Indices can still drop further without invalidating this picture.

July 13 Stock Market Preview: Upside progress on Friday places SPX within earshot of a new all-time high, and a retest of the weekly HMA could potentially bring SPX even beyond 7600, even if the move only lasts for a short time. IWM diverged negatively, but IWM still holds the key 290 support that opens the pathway to 300+. The VIX is reaching oversold conditions often associated with a reversal in volatility, so let’s look at how a tricky OpEx week could play out.

July 10 Stock Market Preview: Futures did the heavy lifting that the cash session could not do on Wednesday, allowing indices to teleport above important resistance without a fight. While we can argue the durability of such advances near all-time highs later, the closing levels do validate the odds tilting toward testing upside targets again, though such progress may be short-lived if risks that we’ll discuss in tonight’s newsletter come to fruition.

July 9 Stock Market Preview: Indices gapped down Wednesday, causing SPX to lose key HMA support and bringing SPX below 7500. QQQ outperformed, thanks to SMH staging a rebound, but resistance overhead requires additional progress before turning bullish again. Let’s look at some levels that may determine indices’ next direction as we enter the back half of the week.

July 8 Stock Market Preview: The VIX is looking more likely to spike toward the 18-20 strikes as of Tuesday’s close. QQQ looks particularly weak, losing the 710 GEX support, with semis once again leading the way down. As hinted at Monday and last week, SPX is outperforming, holding where it needs to on the downside and still higher than Friday’s close. If QQQ continues dropping, can SPX avoid the carnage? Let’s look at important levels that may decide which direction is chosen next.

July 7 Stock Market Preview: SPX neatly tested 7550 Monday, with semiconductors leading the way for QQQ, amongst other tech names primarily. Those same semiconductors started showing early weakness upon SMH’s test of several overhead resistance levels as SPX continued higher. Given the apparent weakness in futures, is it time to get bearish yet? As we can usually say, not so fast..Let’s check out some key levels first.

July 6 Stock Market Preview: QQQ and SPX are painting conflicting pictures as of the end of last week, both in terms of the GEX picture and the charts, with QQQ looking somewhat less bullish than SPX. The VIX is potentially approaching the likely lower end of its range again, so what happens next?

July 2 Stock Market Preview: Wednesday saw unusual divergence between QQQ and SPX, with QQQ down considerably on a relative basis. This was largely due to the semiconductors. The VIX tested 16 and is holding so far. Let’s take a closer look at the GEX picture and the charts now that indices have filled their recent gap to the upside while still holding key support. Can we see continuation higher, or was that “it?”

July 1 Stock Market Preview: Market strength continued on the last day of Q2, with QQQ and SPX filling a gap back to mid-June while the VIX almost reached 16. Is the breakout indicative of a retest of all-time highs, or is failure imminent? Let’s look at what GEX and the charts might be suggesting.

June 30 Stock Market Preview: SPX resolved to the positive on Monday after yet again testing the 7350 area, indicating that the market is just not willing to move lower despite repeat attempts over the last few days. This could always change, but the GEX picture has shifted more positively, at least for this week. The VIX still has room to drop without threatening the potential for a spike higher, so questions still loom.

June 29 Stock Market Preview: Indices drifted lower last week on a net basis, but the closing differences were quite small, despite intraday volatility that saw a range from the 7290s to the low 7400s. The VIX is holding where it needs to hold to generate a larger spike, but smaller timeframes on SPX may be supportive of yet another move toward the upper end of the 7420-7450 resistance zone. Let’s take a closer look given the conflicting signals we see on the charts.

June 26 Stock Market Preview: Indices continue to fulfill GEX levels we’ve been watching, with SPX almost perfectly tagging the 7320 GEX target (coincidentally right above the 50 EMA) and QQQ remaining within the 700-727 range, closing toward the middle. The GEX picture is still mostly focused lower into the end of the month, though the largest clusters are not dramatically lower at the moment. Let’s take a look at key levels to watch in coming days.

June 25 Stock Market Preview: Wednesday saw IWM inch ever closer to 300, printing 299.69, showing continuing strength relative to other indices. This divergence is particularly unique given the drops we’ve seen in QQQ and SPX. With MU having reported after hours, let’s look at some GEX levels on MU we’re watching that were relevant as of today’s cash session close, and discuss whether or not indices are likely to resume the interrupted uptrend.

June 24 Stock Market Preview: Tuesday’s gap down did some damage to the short-term bullish picture, and GEX shifted accordingly. Indices still have some room to drop without threatening the larger positive trend, but we need to look at the GEX picture as well. Is SPX likely to reach 7000 anytime soon?

June 23 Stock Market Preview:

June 22 Stock Market Preview: Indices concluded June OpEx with a bullish rally right into resistance at SPX 7500, playing level-to-level from the drop to 7400 and trapping bears in the process. Breadth wasn’t all that impressive, with semiconductors seemingly the only game in town. As we start the July OpEx cycle, let’s take a look at the GEX picture beyond today’s expiration and some key levels on the charts.

June 18 Stock Market Preview: The market lost its footing after the FOMC press conference started, sending the VIX almost to 19, its best day in 6 sessions. The drop in indices brought SPX, QQQ, and IWM to their respective technical support and GEX areas that bulls want to see maintained. What are we looking at as we enter OpEx tomorrow?