SPY vs SPX: A Comparison of GEX Positioning
The VIX saw an almost 8% spike from Friday’s close, fulfilling some of the divergences we’ve noted while also looking somewhat weak below 16. The 2-hour timeframe suggests the VIX may drop as low as 13.5, though the daily timeframe still maintains the possibility of a spike to 17-20. SPX is approaching a potential bounce spot on the 1-hour chart,and 7800 appears as a likely upside target into OpEx. QQQ looks most bullish now, still holding above 713.70, but 720 really needs to be captured to open the door to 730-740.
Interested in joining our group? Save a rare $350 off of the annual Portfolio Manager plan with code LABORDAY26 at checkout!
SPY Looks More Negative Than SPX, 755-760 Appear Likely
We all know SPY and SPX end up moving in the same direction day to day, but the GEX pictures are sometimes different due to the different sets of participants trading each instrument, and the fact that SPY trades units plus options, while SPX is an index strictly featuring options as the tradeable instrument. We typically lean in to SPX more heavily in terms of the data indicating where SPX may be headed, but sometimes SPY gives a clear indication as well. We currently see a huge negative GEX cluster at 760, then at 755. SPY appears to be headed toward 760 as SPY closed below the 767.36 HMA and below the 770 GEX ceiling. SPX suggests an ultimate resolution higher, but more on that next.
Key Levels: Bearish below 765 targeting 760, 755. Bullish above 765 targeting 770, 775.
SPX Looks More Positive Than SPY, Still Suggests 7500-7600 may be tagged
SPX and SPY both have negative net GEX, but SPX is actually positive if you exclude today’s GEX that expired. We also see positive net option flow for SPX. The GEX picture for SPX is certainly more spread out than SPY, with more indication that upside targets may be tagged by OpEx Friday on September 18. SPX closed below the 7689 HMA and below the big GEX area at 7700, which looks bearish, and we do see the possibility of a drop to 7500. But the largest net cluster is at 7800, while the large GEX areas below suggest 7600 may provide good support for SPX. Based on the large GEX cluster at 7800, and the overall trend going back to May in the screenshot shown, the burden is upon bears to show a change in trend.
Key Levels: Bullish above 7700 targeting 7750, 7800. Bearish below 7700 targeting 7650, 7600.
QQQ Still Looks Bullish ABove 713, Semiconductors Look Bullish
QQQ looks bullish, closing above the HMA and 9 SMA, both of which are curling higher. Semis seems to be re-exerting their bullish authority as software conducts a backtest, so maybe semis can lead the way for QQQ. The Mag 7 are still mixed, with TSLA and META looking good while GOOGL and others struggle. We may see a tag of 700 for QQQ, but 730-740 still appears likely in the near-term.
Key Levels: Bullish above 720 targeting 730-740, bearish below 710 targeting 700, 690.
VIX Divergences Appear Fulfilled In the SHort Run- Larger Spike Still Possible
We made a recent observation that GEX highs have been marking lows for the VIX (check), while GEX lows have marked VIX highs (to be determined). Technically, the VIX is holding above the HMA, maintaining the chance to spike to 17 or 20, but the 2-hour chart and the shift to negative GEX suggest we may see the VIX make new lows, or at least fill the gap back to Friday’s close. We will shift our view toward the odds of reaching 20 if and when we see the VIX overcome 16.
Key Levels: Bearish below 15 targeting 13.5-14, bullish above 16 target 17, then 20.
Join The Discussion
We hope you will join us in Discord this week, where we will share some observations for free. Non-subscribers can join through Community on our homepage. First-time guests get a free 7-day trial of the premium Discord channels, where we talk through what is happening in real time.
Our YouTube videos can be viewed by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find the channel link. There’s NO new YouTube video tonight due to connection issues during travel, but we hope to resume regular broadcasting tomorrow!
Join our livestream by clicking the link on our homepage every day around 10:30am ET, and you can replay the most recent one any time before the next one begins. We also post this link in Discord when we’re ready to start, and we plan to have one Wednesday, if allowed by our internet connection during travel.
We now have a live demo on our homepage for those who want to explore the main sections of our website, so we invite non-members to check it out!
Thanks for being part of our community and know that we invite and appreciate your feedback!
The information provided by Geeks of Finance LLC is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be, nor should be construed as, an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or activity. Please view our Investment Adviser Disclaimer and Risk Disclosure.
