SMH Pummeled, VIX Yawns: May 19 Stock Market Preview
May 19 Stock Market Preview: Indices dropped very modestly today, with IWM and QQQ taking the brunt of the selling, with SMH contributing the largest to QQQ’s decline. A tight lid is being kept on the VIX, for now, which barely moved even as indices were at lows. Is change afoot that favors the downside, or are we about to retest highs?
Cracks Emerge On OpEx: May 18 Stock Market Preview
May 18 Stock Market Preview: Friday saw an increasingly rare day of weakness, both in terms of price action as well as GEX. IWM closed below key support while SPX and QQQ are at important support. The VIX has a setup that would justify a spike, in theory. Is the current weakness in futures a sign of a drop that will happen just as one-sided and fast as the rally, or is this a bear trap before new highs?
SPX GEX Extremes, QQQ Chart Resistance: May 15 Stock Market Preview
May 15 Stock Market Preview: SPX is reaching GEX extremes while QQQ is reaching upside chart extremes. Meanwhile, the VIX is maintaining the 17 strike. Can we finally see a correction, or is that term completely extinct? Read further for scientific insight.
SPX New High: Done, Or More To Go? May 14 Stock Market Preview
May 14 Stock Market Preview: QQQ and SPX made new highs today, though IWM was negatively divergent. The VIX is holding key support as well. What levels are we watching as we enter the back half of OpEx week?
Cracks Emerging, VIX Awakens: May 13 Stock Market Preview
May 13 Stock Market Preview: The first signs of weakness emerged today, with semiconductors falling sharply and the VIX spiking. This move didn’t last long, and by the end of the day, indices staged a recovery that left hopeful bears cursing. Is this the beginning of the much-awaited pullback, or just a necessary minor reset before the next bullish move higher?
SPX, Inflation Data, And OpEx: May 12 Stock Market Preview
May 12 Stock Market Preview: Will CPI and PPI over the next two days be able to turn the tide of this rampaging bull market? OpEx week is historically bullish, but perhaps there’s some call premium to kill as we enter the back half of the week. It’s too early to say if inflation data will matter with this kind of momentum, but we are watching GEX and indicators closely for signs of a tactical turn.
SPX At All-Time Highs Entering OpEx: May 10 Stock Market Preview
May 11 Stock Market Preview: Indices are entering OpEx week at all-time highs, and QQQ has reached the upper weekly Keltner channel without a pullback, a pathway I find surprising. While some divergences exist, we need to consider other possibilities as well.
QQQ Approaches Resistance (Again): May 8 Stock Market Preview
May 8 Stock Market Preview: Semiconductors finally showed weakness today, though rotation allowed out-of-favor software stocks and others to fill the void, muting what might have otherwise been a bloodbath for the Nasdaq. IWM led the way down, and the Dow wasn’t far behind. Was today just another small, red candle in this parabolic move higher, or do we have the beginning of a pullback?
VIX Divergences: Approaching A Top? May 7 Stock Market Preview
May 7 Stock Market Preview: VIX divergences are beginning to show as indices continue on a relentless trajectory toward what might be a meaningful top. Yesterday’s note about the weekly QQQ Keltner target appears to be accurate, with QQQ not far from 708. What might we expect from SPX, and how meaningful do we expect the top to be in terms of further upside potential?
QQQ Weekly Chart In Play? May 6 Stock Market Preview
May 6 Stock Market Preview: Breadth didn’t look so great Tuesday, yet markets pressed higher, largely thanks to the semiconductors. With today’s move negating yesterday’s potential start to a decline, will we ever see a down day again? Are bears extinct?
SPX Painted Red: Time For A Pullback? May 5 Stock Market Preview
May 5 Stock Market Preview: Indices finally showed a little weakness Monday, and the VIX rebounded from lows of the day to recover key support on the daily chart. Could this be the start of a larger (and much needed) pullback, or will we continue the trend of moving higher and higher?
QQQ Weekly: As Stretched As It Gets? May 4 Stock Market Preview
May 4 Stock Market Preview: Friday saw the short-term blow-off continue, with indices blasting even higher. SPX did leave a tall wick on the daily candle, closing red for the cash session. We also see the VIX above the 4-hr HMA for the first time since Wednesday. Might we finally see a pullback? Let’s look at the complete picture.
SPX 7200 Reached! Now What? May 1 Stock Market Preview
May 1 Stock Market Preview: SPX reached the anticipated 7200 target, retesting the HMA from below as indices enter their upper Dealer Cluster zones. Can this move extend further, and for how long?
Post-FOMC Uncertainty: Mixed Signals? April 30 Stock Market Preview
April 30 Stock Market Preview: Indices didn’t move much following the FOMC announcement, and we have conflicting signals that require resolution. IWM took a turn for the negative, while QQQ and SPX are still largely holding where they need to hold. Can we still see a move to SPX 7200 this week? Let’s take a closer look.
Bulls & Bears Feeling The Burn! April 29 Stock Market Preview
April 29 Stock Market Preview: While indices gapped down and barely recovered, the VIX got smashed down again, which I ironically don’t find to be very bullish for stocks. That said, bears may not be able to get too excited either, as many signs point to a likely upward resolution to any near-term dip. What comes first, and what levels are we watching?
VIX: Nearing Inflection Again? April 28 Stock Market Preview
April 28 Stock Market Preview: The VIX is nearing what might be a key inflection point for a possible reversal, just as indices churn around recent highs and SMH continues to rocket higher into outerspace. Can we get a pullback soon?
IWM, QQQ Diverge: April 27 Stock Market Preview
April 27 Stock Market Preview: IWM hasn’t made a new high in days, meanwhile, the “story stock” favorite QQQ is finally breaking away to the upside. Is this a case of the dumb money being late for the final gasp of this phase of the latest rally, or is QQQ acting as a forward indicator?
SPX: Pullback Now Or Later? April 24 Stock Market Preview
April 24 Stock Market Preview: SPX almost reached 7150, beating the 4/17 high intraday by 0.26 points. The intraday reversal was pretty impressive, dropping 101 points from high to low before rebounding. The VIX almost hit the initial 22 target we’ve mentioned as a first upside target before fading back to 19. What’s next?
SPX Retesting Resistance: April 23 Stock Market Preview
April 23 Stock Market Preview: Indices put in a solid up day Wednesday, retesting the HMA from below on the daily charts. The VIX appears to be basing while indices are pressing against resistance, what could go wrong? Not so fast- let’s look at the possibility of a modest additional push higher prior to a deeper correction as we consider both directions.
SPX Loses Key Level: April 22 Stock Market Preview
April 22 Stock Market Preview: Today’s modest decline may be the beginning of at least an initial pullback following the record rally to new highs. Where might this drop take us? Let’s take a look at the GEX picture and the VIX heading into Wednesday.