July 6 Stock Market Preview: QQQ and SPX are painting conflicting pictures as of the end of last week, both in terms of the GEX picture and the charts, with QQQ looking somewhat less bullish than SPX. The VIX is potentially approaching the likely lower end of its range again, so what happens next?

July 2 Stock Market Preview: Wednesday saw unusual divergence between QQQ and SPX, with QQQ down considerably on a relative basis. This was largely due to the semiconductors. The VIX tested 16 and is holding so far. Let’s take a closer look at the GEX picture and the charts now that indices have filled their recent gap to the upside while still holding key support. Can we see continuation higher, or was that “it?”

July 1 Stock Market Preview: Market strength continued on the last day of Q2, with QQQ and SPX filling a gap back to mid-June while the VIX almost reached 16. Is the breakout indicative of a retest of all-time highs, or is failure imminent? Let’s look at what GEX and the charts might be suggesting.

June 30 Stock Market Preview: SPX resolved to the positive on Monday after yet again testing the 7350 area, indicating that the market is just not willing to move lower despite repeat attempts over the last few days. This could always change, but the GEX picture has shifted more positively, at least for this week. The VIX still has room to drop without threatening the potential for a spike higher, so questions still loom.

June 29 Stock Market Preview: Indices drifted lower last week on a net basis, but the closing differences were quite small, despite intraday volatility that saw a range from the 7290s to the low 7400s. The VIX is holding where it needs to hold to generate a larger spike, but smaller timeframes on SPX may be supportive of yet another move toward the upper end of the 7420-7450 resistance zone. Let’s take a closer look given the conflicting signals we see on the charts.

June 26 Stock Market Preview: Indices continue to fulfill GEX levels we’ve been watching, with SPX almost perfectly tagging the 7320 GEX target (coincidentally right above the 50 EMA) and QQQ remaining within the 700-727 range, closing toward the middle. The GEX picture is still mostly focused lower into the end of the month, though the largest clusters are not dramatically lower at the moment. Let’s take a look at key levels to watch in coming days.

June 25 Stock Market Preview: Wednesday saw IWM inch ever closer to 300, printing 299.69, showing continuing strength relative to other indices. This divergence is particularly unique given the drops we’ve seen in QQQ and SPX. With MU having reported after hours, let’s look at some GEX levels on MU we’re watching that were relevant as of today’s cash session close, and discuss whether or not indices are likely to resume the interrupted uptrend.

June 24 Stock Market Preview: Tuesday’s gap down did some damage to the short-term bullish picture, and GEX shifted accordingly. Indices still have some room to drop without threatening the larger positive trend, but we need to look at the GEX picture as well. Is SPX likely to reach 7000 anytime soon?

June 23 Stock Market Preview:

June 22 Stock Market Preview: Indices concluded June OpEx with a bullish rally right into resistance at SPX 7500, playing level-to-level from the drop to 7400 and trapping bears in the process. Breadth wasn’t all that impressive, with semiconductors seemingly the only game in town. As we start the July OpEx cycle, let’s take a look at the GEX picture beyond today’s expiration and some key levels on the charts.

June 18 Stock Market Preview: The market lost its footing after the FOMC press conference started, sending the VIX almost to 19, its best day in 6 sessions. The drop in indices brought SPX, QQQ, and IWM to their respective technical support and GEX areas that bulls want to see maintained. What are we looking at as we enter OpEx tomorrow?

June 17 Stock Market Preview: Wednesday morning concludes the monthly expiration of VIX options, followed by comments by new Fed chief Warsh, so OpEx week might get more interesting starting tomorrow. 7600 is still proudly displayed as the largest net GEX cluster expiring Thursday, and the VIX may end up closer to 15 before the week is over. Let’s take a closer look at risks and potential setups that may appear in the next two days.

June 16 Stock Market Preview: Indices approached the upper GEX limit in Monday’s session, with SPX and QQQ testing their upper weekly HMAs as the VIX dropped to what we view as an “extreme” low near 16. The VIX could drop a bit more toward 15.75, but we are seeing technical signals that may imply a VIX bounce as soon as tomorrow. IWM actually saw selling in the cash session, which may be a red flag. Let’s look more closely as we head toward Wednesday’s premarket VIX expiration and Warsh’s first words as head of the Fed.

June 15 Stock Market Preview: Indices flipped bullish according to Friday’s price action and GEX pictures, giving us a preview of sorts to what many will perceive as positive news that subsequently came out regarding a deal with Iran. This is also June OpEx week, and a short one at that, with VIX monthly options expiring Wednesday and monthly index OpEx Thursday. Short weeks tend to lean bullish, but will a move higher be an easy, straight line higher?

June 12 Stock Market Preview: Wednesday’s preview of Thursday played out as indicated by the GEX picture, with indices failing to make new lows and actually staging an impressive rally into the close. Since this is the last newsletter until Sunday, let’s look at the structure heading into next week, so we can keep that in mind as Friday unfolds.

June 11 Stock Market Preview: IWM extinguished early hope that a big rebound was coming as it rejected at key resistance around the 289 area. VVIX and the VIX both gave early warnings that not all was well, with VVIX making a new market pullback high intraday at 109.22. The VIX closed over 22.22, a higher close than on Tuesday, increasing the odds of a tag of 25. After today’s action, and with PPI in the morning, do we have any clarity yet regarding the next big move?

June 10 Stock Market Preview: Early strength turned into new lows for SPX and QQQ today, though IWM did show divergent strength, closing higher than Monday’s close. The VIX surpassed the 23 strike, getting fairly close to the upper edge of where GEX has indicated the VIX may go at the 25 strike. With CPI tomorrow, uncertainty remains, so let’s take a look at what we’re watching.

June 9 Stock Market Preview: Indices were indecisive today, closing below key resistance despite the VIX deflating back into the 18s. Most of the strength was in semiconductors, with other sectors ranging anywhere from slightly positive to negative. Not strong showing. With bullish and bearish possibilities still intact, what additional clues popped up today to help us navigate tomorrow’s action?

June 8 Stock Market Preview: Divergences that we’ve noted for days were vindicated with a sharp selloff Friday, now reaching levels demanding a discussion regarding risk/reward of a rebound versus further downside. What are we seeing as we look ahead?

June 5 Stock Market Preview: Rotation saved the day on Thursday, with beaten down stocks like WMT broadly rising while semiconductors and QQQ stayed red. The Dow and IWM diverged positively, similar to the topping process in late January/February. Daily charts still look bullish, though indices closed below key resistance levels. What comes next?