SPX Likely AIming For 7550
lSPX appears to be heading for 7550+ based on the GEX picture, though conditions are getting a bit stretched as of Friday’s close. A break and daily close above 7600 starts to look very bullish, while another loss of 7400 would put SPX back into a zone of greater uncertainty.
Members save $300 on the annual Portfolio Manager plan with code SUMMER26 at checkout, which will run a few more days.
SPX May Reach 7550 This Week, Though Progress Beyond Is Unclear
The gross GEX picture for this OpEx cycle shows noteworthy GEX down to 7300, though most of the GEX is concentrated between 7500-7600. Price being almost exactly 100 points above the daily HMA is almost as much of a stretch as we saw to the downside two weeks ago, so some mean reversion may be due. As long as SPX holds 7390-7450, a retest of 7600 is possible. 7550 currently appears to be the most likely upside target, which we’ll look at with the next section on SPX’s net GEX picture, viewed against the weekly chart.
SPX Weekly Chart Aligns Well With GEX At 7550
The largest net GEX clusters for SPX are not as bullish as the gross picture potentially suggests, with the largest net clusters being 7550, 7500, 7530, and 7300, in that order. So a tight cluster across the next 60 points, then we look 250 points lower. Not that I think the move transpires in that fashion, but it’s good to be aware that a fair amount of GEX rests at lower strikes relative to everything outside of that tight 7500-7550 range. I currently like the weekly HMA (currently declining, unfortunately) at 7561 as a potentially good argument for 7550-7560 to serve as overhead resistance, or an important pivot to higher levels.
Key levels: Bullish above 7550 targeting 7600. Bearish below 7500 targeting 7400, 7300.
QQQ May Be Targeting 700, Or 720 In A More Bullish Scenario
The HMA on the daily chart for QQQ is still in a steep downtrend, and QQQ is still somewhat far from the line, which is 14 points away. Mean reversion could mean a retest of 670-680, which would still allow for a move back up to 700+. A “stretch” goal would be a retest of the weekly HMA at 720. While QQQ was within a point of 660, GEX still remains at that strike, so it’s possible we see another drop toward recent lows.
Key Levels: Bullish above 690 targeting 700, then possibly 710-720. Bearish below 680 targeting 660.
The VIX Made A Higher High Last Week, Needs Another Weekly Low For Bulls To Win
The VIX made a higher high last week relative to the prior week, topping at 20.49. The VIX crush still hasn’t brought the VIX back to where it closed 3 weeks ago, so bulls may want to see the VIX begin to paint more of a topping pattern. Smaller timeframes show the VIX in oversold territory and almost ready to bounce, so any rebound for volatility needs to hold below 18. Above 20 and we start looking at 25-30.
Bullish above 18 targeting 20-25. Bearish below 18 targeting 15-16, so we see limited downside with the VIX.
Join The Discussion
We hope you will join us in Discord this week, where we will share some observations for free. Non-subscribers can join through Community on our homepage. First-time guests get a free 7-day trial of the premium Discord channels, where we talk through what is happening in real time.
Check out our YouTube video tonight, covering SPX, AMD, PLTR, and a lot more. You can view the new video by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find our YouTube channel link.
Join our livestream by clicking the link on our homepage every day around 10:30am ET, and you can replay the most recent one any time before the next one begins.
We now have a live demo on our homepage for those who want to explore the main sections of our website, so we invite non-members to check it out! We hope you’ll join us as members.
Thanks for being part of our community and know that we invite and appreciate your feedback!
The information provided by Geeks of Finance LLC is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be, nor should be construed as, an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or activity. Please view our Investment Adviser Disclaimer and Risk Disclosure.
