August 3 Stock Market Preview: Market strength has shown itself again as of Friday, and the GEX picture appears to be supportive of a test of SPX 7550, something we posted on X during Friday’s cash session as the picture shifted. With the VIX pushing into oversold territory and key indicators lagging behind the thrust in price, some mean reversion may be due soon.

July 31 Stock Market Preview: High beta rebounded Thursday, though the S&P equal weight was actually lower. The VIX got crushed to a point where we may see a volatility bounce, even if that bounce gets crushed back toward 16-17 again. The GEX picture for the next two weeks currently points toward muted upside, but the most dire downside scenarios also seem to be off the table, even before indices have broken their downtrends to the upside. Are we in for some chop in both directions?

July 30 Stock Market Preview: The 7300 GEX cluster we’ve highlighted all week became an ultimate target after the FOMC announcement, even with a powerful rally from the 7340 area up to 7450. The move lower brings us closer to a potential dip buy zone, even if the ultimate resolution from such a rebound is lower. Indices might not be quite out of the woods, so let’s look at key levels heading into Thursday’s session.

July 29 Stock Market Preview: FOMC odds of a rate hike tomorrow are roughly 30% at the time of this writing, but hike or no hike, markets enter the day of the announcement on fragile footing. Let’s look at some key levels and option activity as we look to Wednesday’s session.

July 28 Stock Market Preview: Indices sold off substantially from the opening gap up, but SPX was able to regain 7400 by a good margin and QQQ regained 680 as well, leaving open the potential for another rebound attempt before pushing closer toward potentially pivotal downside projections toward FOMC and upcoming earnings.

July 24 Stock Market Preview:

July 24 Stock Market Preview:

July 23 Stock Market Preview: Indices rejected at resistance today, with SPX turning red, barely closing below 7500. The VIX had a bizarre, brief spike to 19.49 (a penny below the recent high) before going red, closing in the mid 16s. Tonight’s newsletter looks at the GEX picture for SPX and QQQ as well as a quick look at GLD and GOOG, the latter having reported earnings after the bell.

July 22 Stock Market Preview: An early gap up looked promising for stocks, only to completely (though slowly) fade away and turn red by the close. With monthly VIX options expiring Wednesday, we tagged the lower of the two largest GEX strikes at 17 and 20 with an intraday low of 17.41, suggesting we may see some downside before an attempt higher. Let’s look at the VIX and the indices to see what their GEX pictures look like following OpEx.

July 22 Stock Market Preview: An early gap up looked promising for stocks, only to completely (though slowly) fade away and turn red by the close. With monthly VIX options expiring Wednesday, we tagged the lower of the two largest GEX strikes at 17 and 20 with an intraday low of 17.41, suggesting we may see some downside before an attempt higher. Let’s look at the VIX and the indices to see what their GEX pictures look like following OpEx.

July 21 Stock Market Preview: Indices closed OpEx Friday below key support areas, which raises concern that more downside may lay just ahead. With VIX monthly options expiring Wednesday morning, will we see volatility behaving as if a lid is in place, or will the VIX become unglued and head for 25-30? We don’t have the answer, but let’s look at levels we think could be potential triggers in either direction.

July 17 Stock Market Preview: SPX is still exhibiting relative strength, and especially IWM, which was essentially flat at the close. But QQQ’s weakness was enough to pull SPX down as the VIX bounced from the key 15.5 support zone we’ve been highlighting, and semiconductors appear to be on the verge of a larger breakdown. Tonight’s newsletter looks at OpEx levels that may be important Friday.

July 16 Stock Market Preview: Indices looked pretty bullish today, initially filling the gap from yesterday’s close to the downside, then coming all the way back up. Contrarian warnings from the VIX and the formerly leading sector we respectfully call “the semiconductors” deserve our attention, but SPX has the setup to potentially make a new high before turning lower.

July 15 Stock Market Preview: Indices bounced Tuesday, with QQQ looking more hopeful and SPX testing resistance. A setup still exists to see SPX test 7600 by Friday, but we want to see certain levels hold to keep this possibility alive. The VIX initially failed to overtake 17, and we may see 15.5 before another leg higher in volatility may occur. Let’s take a look at these levels more closely in conjunction with the GEX picture.

July 14 Stock Market Preview: The first day of OpEx week was a red one for the indices, and the VIX closed right at an important line that marks an important pivot on my charts. In the big picture, nothing has changed, with indices still respecting the limits of this lengthy consolidation, keeping both upside and downside breakout scenarios possible. Given the GEX picture, we still favor at least a temporary upside scenario given the GEX picture. Indices can still drop further without invalidating this picture.

July 13 Stock Market Preview: Upside progress on Friday places SPX within earshot of a new all-time high, and a retest of the weekly HMA could potentially bring SPX even beyond 7600, even if the move only lasts for a short time. IWM diverged negatively, but IWM still holds the key 290 support that opens the pathway to 300+. The VIX is reaching oversold conditions often associated with a reversal in volatility, so let’s look at how a tricky OpEx week could play out.

July 10 Stock Market Preview: Futures did the heavy lifting that the cash session could not do on Wednesday, allowing indices to teleport above important resistance without a fight. While we can argue the durability of such advances near all-time highs later, the closing levels do validate the odds tilting toward testing upside targets again, though such progress may be short-lived if risks that we’ll discuss in tonight’s newsletter come to fruition.

July 9 Stock Market Preview: Indices gapped down Wednesday, causing SPX to lose key HMA support and bringing SPX below 7500. QQQ outperformed, thanks to SMH staging a rebound, but resistance overhead requires additional progress before turning bullish again. Let’s look at some levels that may determine indices’ next direction as we enter the back half of the week.

July 8 Stock Market Preview: The VIX is looking more likely to spike toward the 18-20 strikes as of Tuesday’s close. QQQ looks particularly weak, losing the 710 GEX support, with semis once again leading the way down. As hinted at Monday and last week, SPX is outperforming, holding where it needs to on the downside and still higher than Friday’s close. If QQQ continues dropping, can SPX avoid the carnage? Let’s look at important levels that may decide which direction is chosen next.

July 7 Stock Market Preview: SPX neatly tested 7550 Monday, with semiconductors leading the way for QQQ, amongst other tech names primarily. Those same semiconductors started showing early weakness upon SMH’s test of several overhead resistance levels as SPX continued higher. Given the apparent weakness in futures, is it time to get bearish yet? As we can usually say, not so fast..Let’s check out some key levels first.