August 20 Stock Market Preview: Yesterday, we noted that the VIX had a setup to potentially test the 14-14.5 area, and today’s low was 14.77. We may still see the VIX drop closer to 14, but now that we’re beyond VIX monthly options expiration, such a drop may not be long-lasting. Tonight we look at the VIX, SPX, and QQQ as we approach monthly OpEx for major indices on Friday.

August 19 Stock Market Preview: The close below 7750 for SPX and 730 for QQQ proved consequential, with negative action taking SPX down to 7691.97 at the close. The VIX still shows no signs of life, likely due to the large negative GEX at 15 that we see as the VIX moves into the morning’s monthly options expiration for VIX options. With the VIX remaining relatively low, we are cautious toward the sustainability of any push higher, but we do think the market can rebound from here, potentially sending the VIX to 14 again.

August 18 Stock Market Preview: Monday evolved into a day with the VIX up over 6.5%, QQQ lost 730, and SPX closed below 7750. Is this GEX level and technical “break” going to hold in OpEx week, where bears go to die? Let’s look at some key levels as we look ahead to VIX expiration Wednesday and OpEx Friday.

August 17 Stock Market Preview: Thursday’s extreme positive GEX reading on SPX (a potentially contrarian signal for price action) seems to have shown early signs of success, with SPX dropping slightly on Friday. We see negative options flow at higher strikes and some technical signs of potential weakness ahead, but can the VIX wake up from its coma?

August 14 Stock Market Preview: SPX tagged 7800 today, exceeding the upper end of our previously mentioned 7700-7800 range briefly before closing barely 1 point below 7800 as of the close. We finally see a solidly extreme SPX GEX reading at the end of day, potentially signaling a short-term top. Let’s look at the comprehensive picture.

August 13 Stock Market Preview: Indices displayed a muted reaction to CPI today, showing failure to recapture the GEX area at SPX 7750 despite the VIX being crushed even further to the mid-14s. The weekly picture hasn’t changed much: We have a likely range of 7700-7800, though we’ll focus on a few points to keep in mind based on Wednesday’s action.

August 12 Stock Market Preview: QQQ and SPX lost key daily HMA support today as the VIX held above the HMA for the first time since late July, also as the VIX is near lows of the year. Suffice it to say, from a contrarian standpoint, this is not the setup that I seek to go max long right before CPI Wednesday morning. Can the rally get even more ridiculous? Will we finally see a pullback since the breathtaking move higher? You’ll know in a few hours, but read on for supplemental entertainment anyway.

August 11 Stock Market Preview: The VIX moved up today, also forming a doji candle on the daily chart. Could a reversal be underway? Tonight’s newsletter looks at this week’s GEX (excluding Monday’s expiring GEX) and option activity to see which levels we’re focused on as we enter Tuesday’s trading session.

August 10 Stock Market Preview: The VIX appears to be ready for a reversal, yet we’re also looking at a bullish GEX picture into Augusts’ OpEx on the 21st, which is our timeframe in focus for Sunday’s newsletter. We suspect we’ll have a pullback sometime this week, but let’s look at important levels on both sides of the current SPX price as well as a couple of potential scenarios to consider.

August 7 Stock Market Preview: Indices showed weakness Thursday, but only modestly, with QQQ bouncing off of the opening lows and SPX held above 7700. Major indices paint an unclear picture regarding the next move, with GEX still biased higher, yet the VIX and other technicals suggesting we have downside risk in the near term. Let’s look at some key levels we’ll be watching Friday into next week.

August 6 Stock Market Preview: The extreme upside move is starting to show some cracks, with QQQ closing below the key 720 level and SPX closing lower as well. The VIX was crushed to a point only seen 3 other times this year, all marking local lows for volatility. While a drop may be imminent, let’s look at the total picture to ascertain what may happen after a pullback.

August 5 Stock Market Preview: SPX bulls declared victory today with a breakout beyond 7700, causing bears to be added to the Federal endangered species list. But we also saw the VIX higher, and semiconductors couldn’t keep up the pace. Are we seeing a sustainable rotation that will keep markets elevated, or is this a fake breakout? Let’s look at key levels that might help us keep up with the next move.

August 3 Stock Market Preview: Market strength has shown itself again as of Friday, and the GEX picture appears to be supportive of a test of SPX 7550, something we posted on X during Friday’s cash session as the picture shifted. With the VIX pushing into oversold territory and key indicators lagging behind the thrust in price, some mean reversion may be due soon.

July 31 Stock Market Preview: High beta rebounded Thursday, though the S&P equal weight was actually lower. The VIX got crushed to a point where we may see a volatility bounce, even if that bounce gets crushed back toward 16-17 again. The GEX picture for the next two weeks currently points toward muted upside, but the most dire downside scenarios also seem to be off the table, even before indices have broken their downtrends to the upside. Are we in for some chop in both directions?

July 30 Stock Market Preview: The 7300 GEX cluster we’ve highlighted all week became an ultimate target after the FOMC announcement, even with a powerful rally from the 7340 area up to 7450. The move lower brings us closer to a potential dip buy zone, even if the ultimate resolution from such a rebound is lower. Indices might not be quite out of the woods, so let’s look at key levels heading into Thursday’s session.

July 29 Stock Market Preview: FOMC odds of a rate hike tomorrow are roughly 30% at the time of this writing, but hike or no hike, markets enter the day of the announcement on fragile footing. Let’s look at some key levels and option activity as we look to Wednesday’s session.

July 28 Stock Market Preview: Indices sold off substantially from the opening gap up, but SPX was able to regain 7400 by a good margin and QQQ regained 680 as well, leaving open the potential for another rebound attempt before pushing closer toward potentially pivotal downside projections toward FOMC and upcoming earnings.

July 24 Stock Market Preview:

July 24 Stock Market Preview:

July 23 Stock Market Preview: Indices rejected at resistance today, with SPX turning red, barely closing below 7500. The VIX had a bizarre, brief spike to 19.49 (a penny below the recent high) before going red, closing in the mid 16s. Tonight’s newsletter looks at the GEX picture for SPX and QQQ as well as a quick look at GLD and GOOG, the latter having reported earnings after the bell.