September 18 Stock Market Preview: Indices held their gains by the end of the day after gapping up Thursday, which looks positive by itself. IWM lagged significantly, which may be a warning sign about the sustainability of this move. The VIX is holding positive GEX for the 2nd day which also looks concerning for market bulls. Let’s look at GEX for the next two weeks and some accompanying technical levels we’re watching.

September 17 Stock Market Preview: Indices broke lower following the start of the FOMC press conference, with the lower edge of the 7500-7700 range we’ve been discussing being hit. A nice rebound occurred from that spot, but SPX isn’t out of the woods. The VIX may still find its way to 20, but let’s look at potential pathways into Friday and beyond.

September 15 Stock Market Preview: SPX gave us the retest of 7600 Monday morning, pushing higher before fading back to a less decisive close. The VIX faded from early morning highs after printing a premarket high over 18, testing the pivot area we’ve discussed for weeks around the 17-18 zone. Is the market waiting for FOMC to break out in one direction or another?

September 15 Stock Market Preview: SPX gave us the retest of 7600 Monday morning, pushing higher before fading back to a less decisive close. The VIX faded from early morning highs after printing a premarket high over 18, testing the pivot area we’ve discussed for weeks around the 17-18 zone. Is the market waiting for FOMC to break out in one direction or another?

September 14 Stock Market Preview: We saw fulfillment of the traditionally bullish 9/11 Friday, with a little help from the divergences we’ve noted since mid-week. We have an important week ahead, with VIX monthly options expiring, quarterly OpEx, and FOMC, so let’s take a look at the GEX picture as of Friday’s close.

September 11 Stock Market Preview: Friday has two important data points: CPI at 8:30AM, and Consumer Sentiment at 10 AM. Will all of the negative GEX at 7500, are we destined to see SPX continue lower? 9/11 is typically a bullish day, so we’ll be watching premarket action closely for indications of where the cash session may start. The VIX appears to be headed for 20, though the 4-hour chart suggests we might see a pullback in volatility before a spike to 20.

September 10 Stock Market Preview: Markets continued lower today while the VIX moved higher, yet we haven’t yet moved out of the recent range we’ve seen for weeks. Furthermore, the VIX sees a number of contrarian signals that have previously marked tops. In tonight’s newsletter, we discuss the risk of continued downside for SPX (and associated levels) as well as a discussion surrounding the VIX.

September 9 Stock Market Preview: The VIX rose enough today to consider our recent warnings fulfilled, though it’s unclear whether or not the VIX will spike further before another pullback in volatility. SPX dropped below the key 7700 area while QQQ maintains an appearance of strength. Tonight we look at how the GEX picture has shifted looking ahead toward September’s OpEx.

September 8 Stock Market Preview: SPX net GEX dropped over -1.2B Friday, though we still see positive net GEX , even if only barely. The change was large though, which is be worth noting. The most probable GEX range is large for both SPX and QQQ, and the VIX is showing unusual divergences near lows, which may suggest a greater degree of volatility through September than we’ve seen in the weeks leading up to this point.

September 4 Stock Market Preview: SPX recaptured 7700 today, closing just under the 7750 target we’ve noted as an upside target in recent days in the event that SPX overtook 7700. This looks bullish on the surface, and the GEX picture reflects potential up to 7825 into the end of next week. But the VIX continues to show eye-popping GEX divergences as it tests 14, a very unusual even of VIX GEX rising to the highest reading since the last spike in June despite not being at a high. How do we navigate this seemingly conflicting data?

September 3 Stock Market Preview:

September 2 Stock Market Preview: SPX is now in negative GEX territory, and the warnings we’ve issued in the newsletter for several days are coming to fruition, with the VIX almost reaching 17 (our first target) and indices dropping to 7650 and below. We are now likely close to a spot where we can see a bounce, though the outcome of that rally will be important to determining whether we have more downside ahead or if we can resume the uptrend.

September 1 Stock Market Preview: Tonight we’re looking at the GEX picture for the next two weeks, excluding today’s already expired 0 DTE GEX. We see two divergent views: A somewhat more neutral-to-bearish view of SPX, and a positive-leaning view for QQQ. The VIX gapped up but gave up a lot of the gain, and VX futures were especially hit hard as they embark on a rather early journey of closing the gap to spot VIX. Will the market see a larger drop before resolving higher, or was today “it” as far as downside goes?

August 31 Stock Market Preview: Indices strongly suggest higher levels will arrive before the end of the year, but the next two weeks leading up to OpEx in September could get dicey, if the VIX has any say in the matter. Tonight we look at key upside and downside levels that may impact which direction is chosen first as we enter the last trading day of August.

August 27 Stock Market Preview: Our “primary” scenario of NVDA moving higher seems to be playing out after hours following their earnings report, so now we’ll await the cash session to see if the move can continue. Tonight we’ll go over the VIX and discuss the risk of limited upside from here for the indices.

August 26 Stock Market Preview: As we approach NVDA earnings after hours Wednesday, indices look uncertain as to which levels are tested first: Downside support, or upside targets? The VIX has a setup to reach 14, at least briefly. Let’s take a tactical look at how we might react to the first move after NVDA’s report and potentially during the day prior to the report.

August 25 Stock Market Preview: Technically, the market looks weak, closing below key daily and weekly supports, while the VIX closed above key daily and weekly supports. But GEX paints a less certain picture: SPX holding above 7650, QQQ holding above 700, the VIX still below the big negative GEX at the 16 strike. What are the most likely pathways moving forward?

August 24 Stock Market Preview: While the weekly SPX chart and the total net GEX picture paint a solid upside picture until we reach 7900-8000, the picture for the next few days appears uncertain, with the VIX maintaining a setup to reach 19-20. Does the most likely scenario suggest a pullback first, then rally later scenario?

August 21 Stock Market Preview: Thursday saw SPX reach the 7640 target that we discussed Wednesday, and the VIX spiked above 16 before limping into the close in the 15s again. GEX shifted more negatively across the board, and strangely, we haven’t seen a real VIX spike. Is the VIX doomed to reach 12 again, or will the next bounce for the market be short-lived?